Qualification Scenarios: India regain some lost ground

Touted as the group of death, Group A in the ICC Women's T20 World Cup, 2024 has stayed true to the billing so far. New Zealand got one over on India early which upset the apple-cart, but events in the last 24 hours or so have ensured that qualification is still interestingly poised. Sri Lanka have been eliminated after three defeats on the bounce while India have crept right back up on the Net Run Rate (NRR) scale.

Table - After India's 82-run win over Sri Lanka

Remaining fixtures:

Australia

If Australia win both their remaining fixtures, they will qualify as the table toppers from Group A. If they beat Pakistan and lose to India, they can qualify without NRR coming into picture if New Zealand drop one of their two matches. If they beat India and lose to Pakistan, they would still qualify on points as only the winner of New Zealand-Pakistan contests can reach six points then.

India

India have regained some lost ground after thumping Sri Lanka, a win that gave their NRR a much needed boost. If Australia and New Zealand win all their remaining fixtures, India stand eliminated. If India get the better of Australia on Sunday, the most likely scenario that could emerge in this group will be a three-way tie on six points between Australia, India, and New Zealand, should Australia beat Pakistan and New Zealand win both their two remaining games. If India beat Australia by five runs, then New Zealand would require a combined winning margin of 42 runs against Pakistan and Sri Lanka to surpass India's NRR, presuming teams batting first score 130 runs each. (Australia would qualify as group topper in this scenario even if they beat Pakistan in a Super Over).

New Zealand

New Zealand have ceded some ground which they gained against India, thanks to their drubbing at the hands of Australia. The ideal scenario for New Zealand is to win both their matches left and get to six points and hope Australia remain unbeaten. They have many advantages going their way given they play relatively weaker opponents in Pakistan and Sri Lanka compared to India who have defending champions Australia to face. The White Ferns also play the last fixture of the group. In case of a three-way tie with six points each with Australia and India, New Zealand would need to give their tanking NRR a big boost given it is the lowest among the four teams in contention (refer to India section for the scenario). If New Zealand lose one more match and both India and Australia win one more each (or Pakistan win both theirs), then they stand eliminated.

Pakistan

Pakistan currently have a win and a loss to their name and their chances rely heavily on the unlikely event of them toppling both Australia and New Zealand. Given their NRR is behind both India and Australia, the ideal scenario for them is to get to six points and hope Australia beat India which would mean Australia and Pakistan will qualify from Group A.