WTC Scenarios: South Africa continue ascendancy, England dent New Zealand's progress

There's an added spice to the already exciting Test season, with three of the four ongoing series set to be the key determinants as to which two teams will face-off in the World Test Championship final at Lord's next year. While India and South Africa have continued to take strides towards the top, New Zealand's eight-wicket defeat to England in Christchurch has dented their chances.

Here's how things stand after the Christchurch Test, and a look at what the teams need in the remainder of the cycle

India

Remaining fixtures: 4 Tests vs Australia (Away)

Maximum attainable PCT: 69.29%

India's resounding win in the Perth Test helped them regain the top spot in the WTC 2023-25 standings, and has somewhat enhanced their chances to make it to the finals. For them to qualify without depending on other results, they need to win the Border Gavaskar Trophy by 5-0, 4-0, 4-1, or 3-0. In case of a 3-0 win against Australia, their PCT would end up at 62.28, which can be bettered only by South Africa at this stage.

India can still make it to the final if they lose the series to Australia, but will need several other results to go their way. Say if they go 3-2 down, their PCT would go to 53.51. In this case, Australia will be primed for a top finish, with India needing the other results to go as follows:

• NZ vs ENG ends in 1-1 draw; NZ finish at 52.38

• Both SA vs SL and SA vs PAK end 1-1; SA finish at 52.77

• SL vs AUS ends in 0-0 draw, SL finish at 51.28

If the first two of the above scenarios happen and Sri Lanka draw 1-1 against Australia, their PCT would rise to 53.84, marginally ahead of India's 53.51 if they lose 3-2 to Australia. In this case, even a single point deduction for Sri Lanka in case of slow over rate would help India inch ahead.

Australia

Remaining fixtures: 4 Tests vs India (home); 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (away)

Maximum attainable PCT: 71.05%

Australia, despite the defeat in Perth, pretty much have their fate in their own hands. Five wins (65.79) or four wins and a draw (62.28) would confirm their top-two finish, as only South Africa can better their PCT.

If India win the Border Gavaskar Trophy 3-2, Australia can still finish ahead of the two time finalists' PCT of 58.77 by taking theirs to 60.53 with a 2-0 sweep against Sri Lanka. In this case too, only South Africa can finish ahead of them.

South Africa

Remaining fixtures: 1 Test vs Sri Lanka (home); 2 Tests vs Pakistan (home)

Maximum attainable PCT: 69.44%

With four consecutive wins in the ongoing cycle and three home games to follow, South Africa are currently the favourites to lock a berth in the final of WTC 2023-2025. Two wins and a draw will take them to 63.89, which can only be bettered by one of India and Australia. In case of two wins and a defeat - which will take South Africa to 61.11 - they will need Sri Lanka to drop points (a defeat or a draw); and India to win not more than three Tests or Australia to not win any more than four.

A win and two draws would take them to 58.88, and they will then need other results to go their way. However, draws have been extremely rare in recent times - just three in 52 Tests in the ongoing cycle - each marred by rain.

Sri Lanka

Remaining fixtures: 1 Test vs South Africa (away); 2 Tests vs Australia (home)

Maximum attainable PCT: 61.53%

Following the defeat in Durban, Sri Lanka's best chance is to win each of their remaining three Tests and take their PCT to 61.53, which will help them qualify automatically. Two wins and a draw will take them to 56.41, leaving them delicately placed, as they will then need a combination of several other results to go their way.

New Zealand

Remaining fixtures: 2 Tests vs England (home)

Maximum attainable PCT: 57.14%

New Zealand's eight-wicket defeat to England has done no good to their campaign, and even a win in the next two Tests, which will take them to 57.14, might not be enough, as they will then have to depend on several other results.

A possible set of scenarios for the Blackcaps, if they finish at 57.14, can be:

• South Africa lose at least two of their remaining three Tests (even a 1-1-1 win-loss-draw outcome would do), and

• One of India and Australia run away towards the top; say Australia win the Border Gavaskar series 3-2 to limit India to 53.50, or India beat Australia 3-2 and Australia draw 1-1 against Sri Lanka. In the latter case, India will finish at 64.03 and Australia at 55.26, thus making for a rematch of the inaugural edition final.

*The calculations have been made assuming the teams don't lose out on points for slow over-rate, which could prove to be crucial in the eventual standings.