LEFT ARM TALENTED

Junaid Khan - The promise that hasn't come to be

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Still only 27, Junaid's career has already seen more than a fair share of injury problems.
Still only 27, Junaid's career has already seen more than a fair share of injury problems. © Getty

There is a formula to previewing India vs Pakistan matches now. It is defined by the most obvious and well-worn cliches, none bigger so than the fact that these matches are decided by the battle between Indian batsmen and Pakistani pacers. That's how broadcasters sell it, that's how the stereotypes fit. And that's what generates the most interest.

The problem with that notion going into the 2017 Champions Trophy is simple though: India may have a better pace attack than Pakistan. In fact, it wouldn't be unreasonable to argue that beyond perhaps Sri Lanka, there is no team in this tournament with a worse pace attack than Pakistan.

This wasn't supposed to be the case. The return of Mohammad Amir 18 months ago was supposed to halt, if not reverse, the decline of Pakistan's pace bowling. But the numbers state a different reality. Since the 2015 World Cup, no team's pacers have had a worse average than Pakistan's, and only Sri Lanka and India's pacers have gone at a higher run-rate than their Pakistani counterparts.

In the larger scheme, that deterioration has been gradual. Some could trace it back to the early 2000s with the decline and retirements of the 2 Ws - Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis - or you could point to the spot fixing scandal and the remaking of Pakistan as a spin dominant team. The latter makes obvious sense of course.

Imagine if Wasim and Waqar had gotten banned in 1994, would the likes of Aqib Javed, Ata-ur-Rehman et al have continued Pakistan's pace dominance or would the team have modeled itself around Mushtaq Ahmed and the rising Saqlain? And yet despite these historical reasons, the numbers point to an even more recent decline.

The era between the 2007 and 2011 World Cups saw the last throes of Shoaib Akhtar's career, the return of Mohammad Asif, the rise of Amir, and even moments belonging to Sohail Tanvir. And as all this was going on, one man kept about being borderline world class away from the spotlight. In the four-year period from 2008 to 2012, only three pacers in the world took more wickets than Umar Gul, none did it at a better average. He was also the leading wicket taker in T20s among pacers during this time.

And even as all those names faded away, Pakistan's pace bowling did not exactly fall off a cliff. One reason behind it was Umar Gul's continuous excellence - in coloured clothing at least. But even as he fell away, Pakistan weren't as bad as is popularly imagined. Sure, they rebuilt themselves around Saeed Ajmal and spin bowling, but the attack wasn't as lopsided as Pakistanis tend to believe.

Between the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, the Pakistan bowling attack had the best economy rate in world cricket, and the third-best average (behind Australia and South Africa). This is usually attributed to their trio of spinners, but in fact both Shahid Afridi and Mohammad Hafeez averaged in the mid-30s with the ball during this period. The man who was actually Pakistan's second best bowler during this time was a pacer.

Much like Gul in the years before him, Junaid Khan really stepped up to be the leader of the pace attack , without the recognition his predecessors had. In the three years following the 2011 World Cup, only Lasith Malinga (among pacemen) took more wickets than Junaid did, and among the top-15 wicket-takers during this time, only Saeed Ajmal had a better average than the left armer. To go along with it, Junaid also averaged under 30 with the ball, despite playing 75% of his Tests in Asia.

And unlike Umar Gul, he did reach superstardom for a small window of time. Nothing captures the hearts of the casual Pakistan fan quite like a performance against India. And in the only bilateral series over the last nine years, Pakistan won almost exclusively thanks to Junaid. In each of the three ODIs, India were six down with the score under 120, and in each case, Junaid played as big a part as any in that. By the third ODI it seemed as if India were just happy to let Junaid bowl out and just not give him any wickets. When figures of 1 for 17 from nine overs without a single boundary conceded are from the worst match you played in a series, it's fair to say that you are doing something right.

Yet that promise never came to be. As Junaid was in the middle of this purple patch Umar Gul was sowing the seeds for an early decline. For most of 2012 and early 2013, Gul carried knee injuries that reduced his efficiency. But he continued to play, eventually needing surgery and never being the same again. Since the 2012 Asia Cup, when Gul supposedly developed the problem, he's averaged over 40 with the ball in ODIs. Considering he just turned 33, you would think that his decline would be about to begin, instead he's already a forgotten man.

What should have been a cautionary tale for Junaid ended up being a prequel to his own problems. A combination of injuries and playing through pain and knocks have meant that Junaid is now an afterthought, even in a historically mediocre Pakistan pace attack. In 2012, Junaid missed four months of action due to a knee injury. In 2013, immediately following that India series, he missed most of the South Africa tour due to a mysterious injury suffered there, and he missed nearly all of the 2014-15 season thanks to another knee injury. In another country that might have been a mere setback. But here rehab is considered an unnecessary luxury and the gulf between domestic and international cricket means that players hide their own injuries to make sure they aren't dropped from the national team.

The result of this is that if you are injury prone, your whole career might be derailed. And increasingly it appears like that was the case with Junaid. Since the start of 2014 he has averaged 66 in ODIs and 41 in Tests. He's still only 27.

Perhaps if he had played for England, as he threatened to do so last year, he might have forged a career similar to what Jimmy Anderson did - whose injury record in the mid 2000s is not dissimilar to Junaid's. But that's not how Pakistan and the PCB work. While in India or England, a player is considered a tree which is nurtured and allowed to grow, in Pakistan the same player is considered the fruit of a tree: something to maximize in the right here and right now, and not taken care of in the long run because the tree will give another fruit to replace it soon enough.

Alas, Junaid might have been the last of those fruits.

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